The 1700–2000 CE centennial-scale Northern Hemisphere warming phase was an “outlier,” the start and cause of which preceded significant human activity by more than 2 centuries. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “anthropogenic global warming” story since 1880 (or 1970) is but a partial fragment of this 1700-2000 warming phase.
Figure A) The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly highlights a strong inverse correlation with the 18-year moving average Beryllium-10 concentration anomaly (“Beryllium-10”, is a proxy for solar activity). In 1711, the 18-year moving average Beryllium-10 began its decrease phase (i.e., Beryllium-10 concentrations decline with increasing solar activity), whereas the temperature began to rise two years later from its deep trough in 1713. This relationship tells us the temperature lagged behind the rise in solar activity (viz., a declining Beryllium-10 concentration anomaly). The use of an 18-year moving average for the Beryllium-10 concentration anomaly means the temperature, in reality, lagged behind fluctuations in the Beryllium-10 concentration anomaly by at least one 11-year solar cycle (see citation for why).[i] These two parameters also tracked one another’s variations, putatively supporting a cause-and-effect relationship. Figure B) Since 1713 the rising carbon dioxide concentration has poorly tracked the Northern Hemisphere temperature volatility on multi-annual and decade time scales (see Figure 4.4), indicating carbon dioxide is consequential and not causative of the 1700-2000 temperature increase.[ii]
The conclusion that carbon dioxide follows (not causes) the temperature rise is fully aligned with the science that tells us historical global temperature changes preceded changes in carbon dioxide concentrations by many centuries on glacial cycle time scales,[iii],[iv],[v],[vi] and by many months over the multi-decade time scale.[vii] This means that global mean land surface, ocean surface, and stratospheric temperature changes precede changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (as Figure B indicates). One of these publications concludes that the elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide results from ocean degassing due to warmer oceans (plus human activity) consequent to increased solar activity.[viii]
Click on this page and download a free copy of my book “Revolution: Ice Age Re-Entry,” and read more about this topic in Chapters 4 and 1-2.
Chapter 2 exposes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 30-year track record of high climate forecasting inaccuracy, including missing the 15-year climate hiatus between 1998 and 2012 while carbon dioxide levels increased by 7.4%.[ix] Chapter 2 also tears apart the IPCC’s unilateral and non-peer reviewed delay of the next ice age by 30,000 years (perilously dangerous). You will also see in Chapter 7 that the IPCC dismissed the impact of natural climate change (i.e., solar activity and volcanism) in its climate forecasts and risk assessments provided to governments—which explains its forecasting inaccuracy.
[i] This 11-year solar cycle lag (approximate) is composed of 9 years (i.e., half of a 18-year moving average), plus a two year lag in the temperature rise (behind the Beryllium-10 rise), plus one year before the newly produced Beryllium-10 in the upper atmosphere reaches earth’s surface where it can be incorporated in ice cores (and thus be measured)(Beryllium-10 atmospheric residence time: R.C. Finkel and K. Nishiizumi, 1997, “Beryllium 10 concentrations in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core from 3–40 ka.” J. Geophys. Res., 102(C12), 26699–26706, doi: 10.1029/97JC01282).
[ii] Data: (1) A.M. Berggren et al., 2009, “A 600-year annual 10Be record from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland.” Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11801, doi:10.1029/2009GL038004. National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce. North GRIP – 600 Year Annual 10Be Data. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/8618. Downloaded 05/05/2018. (2) T. Kobashi et al., 2013, “Causes of Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 years: implications for northern hemispheric temperature changes.” Climate of the Past, 9(5), 2299-2317. doi: 10.5194/cp-9-2299-2013. National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce. Northern Hemisphere 4000 Year Temperature Reconstructions. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/15535. Downloaded 05/05/2018. (3) Etheridge, D.M., et al., 2001, “Law Dome Atmospheric CO2 Data,” IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Data Contribution Series #2001-083. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law/law2006.xls. Downloaded 28 August 2018. Personal Research: A 18-year moving average of the Beryllium-10 concentration anomaly (relative to the 1960-1986 average) and carbon dioxide concentration anomaly (relative to the 1961-1990 average) were rendered from the raw data and plotted against the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly (relative to the 1961-1990 average) to create Figures 4.3.A and B.]
[iii] Manfred Mudelsee, “The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka.” Quaternary Science Reviews 20 (2001) 583-58.
[iv] Eric Monnin et al., “Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination.” By Science 05 Jan 2001: 112-114.
[v] N. Caillon et al., 2003, “Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across Termination III.” Science 299: 1728-1731.
[vi] H. Fischer et al., 1999, “Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations.” Science, 283, 1712-1714.
[vii] Ole Humlum et al., “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature.” Global and Planetary Change. Volume 100, January 2013, 51-69.
[viii] Ole Humlum et al., “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature.” Global and Planetary Change. Volume 100, January 2013, 51-69.
[ix] The carbon dioxide data (expressed as a mole fraction in dry air, micromol/mol, abbreviated as ppm) used to support this statement was provided by NASA (see link), which cited the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases//CMIP5/CO2_OBS_1850-2005.lpl.