This ice age entry after the Holocene Climate Optimum is the slowest of to decline in temperature compared with all 33 previous glacial cycles in the last 2 million years (global data). If the climate system has a tendency to revert to the mean, then a significant global cooling will occur during the 21st century.
The first 2,100 years of temperature data after a climate optimum was extracted for the last 34 glacial cycles, and was rebased to zero degrees and zero time. The temperature declined by 0.610C after the Holocene Climate Optimum, which was 1.260C above the average of all other glacial cycles in 2,026,800 years (global data).[i]
The temperature decline 2,100 years after the Holocene Climate Optimum (global data) is the smallest decline compared with all 33 previous glacial cycles 2,100 years after their respective climate optima, in the past 2,026,800 years. While this current global ice age inception temperature decline is the biggest outlier (i.e., slowest to cool), it is not a statistically significant outlier (i.e., P-value >0.05).
The above-cited data suggests that if the climate system has a tendency to revert to the mean, then a significant global cooling will occur during the 21st century.
Click on this page and download a free copy of my book “Revolution: Ice Age Re-Entry,” and read more about this topic in Chapter 3.
[i] Data: R. Bintanja and R.S.W. van de Wal, “North American ice-sheet dynamics and the onset of 100,000-year glacial cycles.” Nature, Volume 454, 869-872, 14 August 2008. doi:10.1038/nature07158. National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce. Global 3Ma Temperature, Sea Level, and Ice Volume Reconstructions. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/11933. Downloaded 10/27/2015. Personal Research: The temperature data for the first 2,100 years from the climate optimum was extracted for the last 34 glacial cycles. This temperature time-series was rebased to zero degrees and zero time so all glacial cycles could be compared on the same basis, i.e., from their peaks. The temperature declined by 0.610C after the Holocene Climate Optimum, which was 1.260C above the average of all other glacial cycles in 2,026,800 years. The current glacial cycle’s slow decline was not a significant outlier in the group.
