This ice age entry after the Holocene Climate Optimum is the slowest of to decline in temperature compared with all eight previous glacial cycles in the last 800,000 years (Antarctica). If the Antarctic climate system has a tendency to revert to the mean, then it will undergo a significant cooling during the 21st century.
Ice core temperature data from Antarctica’s EPICA Dome C reveals that the temperature has only declined by 1.20C (top left figure) since the Holocene Climate Optimum 10,527 years ago. The comparator group of all eight previous glacial cycles declined on average by 4.30C, 10,500 years after their respective climate optima (red triangle shapes).
The temperature decline since the Holocene Climate Optimum 10,500 years after the Antarctic’s Holocene Climate Optimum is the smallest decline compared with all glacial cycles in the past 800,000 years.[i] While this current Antarctic ice age inception temperature decline is the biggest outlier (i.e., slowest to cool), it is not a statistically significant outlier (i.e., P-value >0.05).
This data analysis suggests that if the climate system has a tendency to revert to the mean, then Antarctica will undergo a significant cooling phase during the 21st century.
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[i] J.V. Jouzel et al., 2007, “Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years.” Science, Volume 317, No. 5839, 793-797, 10 August 2007. National Centers for Environmental Information, NESDIS, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce. EPICA Dome C – 800KYr Deuterium Data and Temperature Estimates. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/6080. Download data: Downloaded 08/02/2016.