The build up of polar glacier ice since the Holocene Climate Optimum in the Arctic and Antarctic (we entered the ice age millennia ago)
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| Nicolaj K. Larsen et al., “The response of the southern Greenland ice sheet to the Holocene thermal maximum.” Geology ; 43 (4): 291–294. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G36476.1. |
| Leonid Polyak et al., “History of sea ice in the Arctic.” Quaternary Science Reviews 29 (2010) 1757–1778, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.010 |
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| Christophe Kinnard et al., “A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone: Observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences.” Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, L02507, doi:10.1029/2007GL032507, 2008. |
| Ó. Ingólfsson et al., 1998, “Antarctic glacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum: An overview of the record on land. “Antarctic Science, 10(3), 326-344. doi:10.1017/S095410209800039X. |
| The RAISED Consortium1, Michael J. Bentley et al. “A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum.” Quaternary Science Reviews. Volume 100, 15 September 2014, 1-9. |
| A.N. Mackintosh et al., 2014, “Retreat history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum.” Quaternary Science Reviews 100, 10e30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.07.024. |
| M. Frezzotti et al., “A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 years.” The Cryosphere, 7, 303–319, 2013. www.the-cryosphere.net/7/303/2013/doi:10.5194/tc-7-303-2013. [See Figure 5.A, 312.]. |
| Michael E Mann, “Little Ice Age.” Volume 1, The Earth system: physical and chemical dimensions of global environmental change, 504–509. In Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change (ISBN 0-471-97796-9). |
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Precession modified solar irradiance declined -40 to -50W/m2 @65deg.N since the Holocene Climate Optimum, which paralleled the Northern Hemisphere summer temperature decline (we entered the ice age millennia ago)
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| G.H. Miller et al., 2012, “Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks.” Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L02708, doi:10.1029/2011GL050168. |
| Y. Zhong et al., “Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism.” Climate Dynamics (2011) 37: 2373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z. |
| H. Wanner et al., “Structure and origin of Holocene cold events.” Quaternary Science Reviews (2011), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.07.010. [Comment: See Figure 5a, page 9, depicting the steady decline in Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation at north |
| D.S. Kaufman et al., “Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0–180°W).” Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 23, Issues 5–6, 2004, 529-560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.007. [Comment: See the abstract. We are told that the precession |
| I. Borzenkova et al., 2015. Climate Change During the Holocene (Past 12,000 Years). In: The BACC II Author Team (eds) Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Regional Climate Studies. Springer. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/1 |
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21st Century grand solar minimum cold climate (ice age) predictions by solar activity experts (ignored by the IPCC in its key climate risk assessment provided to governments)
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| Habibullo Abdussamatov, “Current Long-Term Negative Average Annual Energy Balance of the Earth Leads to the New Little Ice age.” Thermal Science. 2015 Supplement, Volume 19, S279-S288 |
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| V.M. Velasco Herrera et al., Reconstruction and prediction of the total solar irradiance: From the Medieval Warm Period to the 21st century. New Astronomy 34 (2015) 221–233. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2014.07.009 |
| Theodor Landscheidt, “New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? Energy & Environment. 2003.” Volume 14, Issue 2, 327–350. https://doi.org/10.1260/095830503765184646 |
| Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl-Otto Weiss. Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2017, 11, 44-53. DOI: 10.2174/1874282301711010044. |
| Nils-Axel Mörner, “Solar Minima, Earth’s rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future. The North Atlantic–European case.” Global and Planetary Change 72 (2010) 282–293. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004 |
| R.J. Salvador, “A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 years,” Pattern Recognition Physics, 1, 117-122, doi:10.5194/prp-1-117-2013, 2013 |
| Jorge Sánchez-Sesma, 2016. Evidence of cosmic recurrent and lagged millennia-scale patterns and consequent forecasts: multi-scale responses of solar activity (SA) to planetary gravitational forcing (PGF). Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 583–595, 2016. doi:10.5194/ |
| N. Scafetta, “Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2012). doi:10.1 |
| Harald Yndestad & Jan-Erik Solheim. The Influence of Solar System Oscillation on the Variability of the Total Solar Irradiance. Personal copy online at http://yndestad.priv.no/Doc/JP-NA-TSI%20160828.pdf. |
| V. V. Zharkova et al., 2015. Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. Nature Scientific Reports, 5:15689, DOI: 10.1038/srep15689. |
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Climate change during the Little Ice Age and its links with solar activity (Europe)
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| Leszek Starkel, “Extreme rainfalls and river floods in Europe during the last millennium.” Geographia Polonica (2001) Volume 74, issue 2, 69-79. |
| Martín-Puertas et al., “Hydrological evidence for a North Atlantic oscillation during the Little Ice Age outside its range observed since 1850.” Climate of the Past Discuss., 7, 4149-4171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-7-4149-2011, 2011. |
| B. Stefanie et al., “Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation.” Quaternary Science Reviews 80 (2013) 112e128. |
| B. Wilhelm et al., 2012, “1400 years of extreme precipitation patterns over the Mediterranean French Alps and possible forcing mechanisms.” Quaternary Research, 78(1), 1-12. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2012.03.003. |
| B. Stefanie et al., “A 2000 year long seasonal record of floods in the southern European Alps.” Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 40, 4025–4029, doi:10.1002/grl.50741, 2013. |
| O.N. Solomina et al., 2016, “Glacier fluctuations during the past 2000 years.” Quaternary Science Reviews, 149, 61-90. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.04.008. [See Figure 5, page 276. This figure collates a stacked time series of the number of glacier advan |
| Laurent Fouinat et al., “Paleoflood activity and climate change over the last 2000 years recorded by high altitude alpine lake sediments in Western French Alps.” Geophysical Research Abstracts. Volume 17, EGU2015-11555, 2015 EGU General Assembly 2015 © Au |
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| Climate change during the Little Ice Age and its links with solar activity (North America) |
| Zicheng Yu and Emi Ito, “Possible solar forcing of century-scale drought frequency in the northern Great Plains.” Geology ; 27 (3): 263–266. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1999)027<0263:PSFOCS>2.3.CO;2. |
| J.E. Nichols and Y. Huang, 2012, “Hydroclimate of the northeastern United States is highly sensitive to solar forcing.” Geophysical. Research. Letters., Volume 39, L04707, doi:10.1029/2011GL050720, 2012. |
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| Climate change during the Little Ice Age and its links with solar activity (China) |
| Shangbin Xiao et al., “Coherence between solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon variability in the past 8000 years from Yangtze River-derived mud in the East China Sea.” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 237 (2006) 293– 304. doi: |
| Liangcheng Tan et al., “Precipitation variations of Longxi, northeast margin of Tibetan Plateau since AD 960 and their relationship with solar activity.” Climate of the Past, 4, 19–28, 2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-19-2008, 2008. |
| Wenfeng Deng et al., “A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea.” December 2016. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 |
| H. Xu et al., 2015, “Late Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon Variations Recorded at Lake Erhai, Southwestern China.” Quaternary Research, 83(2), 307-314. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2014.12.004. |
| J.J. Yin et al., “Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry–wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite.” Climate of the Past, 10, 1803-1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1803-2014, 2014. |
| Wang Shaowu et al., “Climate in China During the Little Ice Age.” Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871. http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-DSJJ199801007.htm. |
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| Climate change during the Little Ice Age and its links with solar activity (India) |
| C. Uberoi, “Little Ice Age in Mughal India: Solar Minima Linked to Droughts?” Volume 93 Number 44 30 October 2012 EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. 437–452. |
| Rajesh Agnihotri et al., “Evidence for solar forcing on the Indian monsoon during the last millennium.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 198 (2002) 521-527. |
| Vishwas Kale and Victor R. Baker, “An Extraordinary Period of Low-magnitude Floods Coinciding with the Little Ice Age: Palaeoflood Evidence from Central and Western India.” Journal of the Geological Society of India 68(3):477-483. |
| Feng Shi et al., “A tree-ring reconstruction of the South Asian summer monsoon index over the past millennium.” Scientific Reports Volume 4, Article number: 6739 (2014). DOI: 10.1038/srep06739. |
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| Climate change during the Little Ice Age and its links with solar activity (Africa) |
| J.M. Russell, T.C. Johnson, “Little Ice Age drought in equatorial Africa: Intertropical Convergence Zone migrations and El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability.” Geology (2007) 35 (1): 21-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/G23125A.1. |
| Dirk Verschuren et al., Cumming. “Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years.” Nature Volume 403, 410–414 (27 January 2000). doi:10.1038/35000179. |
| James M. Russell et al., “Spatial complexity of ‘Little Ice Age’ climate in East Africa: sedimentary records from two crater lake basins in western Uganda.” The Holocene. Volume 17, Issue 2, 183 – 193. 2007. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683607075832. |
| P D Tyson et al., “The Little Ice Age and medieval warming in South Africa.” March 2000South African Journal of Science 96(3):121-126. |
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| Climate change during the Little Ice Age and its links with solar activity (Latin America) |
| Justin Reuter et al., “A new perspective on the hydroclimate variability in northern South America during the Little Ice Age.” December 2009 Geophysical Research Letters 36(21). DOI10.1029/2009GL041051. |
| Alexandra Haase‐Schramm et al., “Sr/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes from sclerosponges: Temperature history of the Caribbean mixed layer and thermocline during the Little Ice Age.” Paleoceanography, 18(3), 1073, doi:10.1029/2002PA000830, 2003. |
| Juan Pablo Milana and Daniela Kröhling, “Climate changes and solar cycles recorded at the Holocene Paraná Delta, and their impact on human population.” August 2015Scientific Reports 5(12851):1-8. DOI10.1038/srep12851. |
| Pablo Mauas et al., “Long-term solar activity influences on South American rivers.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. arXiv:1003.0414 [astro-ph.SR]. 10.1016/j.jastp.2010.02.019. |
| Michael J Burn et al., “A sediment-based reconstruction of Caribbean effective precipitation during the Little Ice Age from Freshwater Pond, Barbuda.” The Holocene. Volume: 26 issue: 8, 1237-1247. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616638418. |
| Amos Winter et al., “Caribbean sea surface temperatures: Two-to-three degrees cooler than present during the Little Ice Age.” October 2000 Geophysical Research Letters 27(20):3365-3368. DOI10.1029/2000GL011426. |
| C. Lane et al., 2011, “Oxygen isotope evidence of Little Ice Age aridity on the Caribbean slope of the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic.” Quaternary Research, 75(3), 461-470. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2011.01.002. |
| D.A. Hodell et al., 2005, “Climate change on the Yucatan Peninsula during the little ice age.” Quaternary Research, 63 (2). 109-121. ISSN 0033-5894. DOI.10.1016/j.yqres.2004.11.004. |
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| A putative Arctic glacier ice accumulation mechanism (i.e., grand solar minima plus climate forcing volcanism synergize multi-decadal- to centennial-scale ice accumulation) |
| J. Slawinska and A. Robock, 2018, “Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Decadal to Centennial Fluctuations of Arctic Sea Ice Extent during the Last Millennium and on Initiation of the Little Ice Age.” J. Climate, 31, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-1 |
| F. Lehner et al., 2013, “Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks.” J. Climate, 26, 7586–7602. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00690.1. |
| C. Newhall et al., 2018, “Anticipating future Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions and their chilling impacts.” Geosphere, v. 14, no. 2, p. 1–32, doi:10.1130/GES01513.1. |
| Odd Helge Otterå et al., “External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability.” Nature Geoscience Volume 3, 688–694 (2010). |
| Y. Zhong et al., “Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism.” Climate Dynamics (2011) 37: 2373. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z. |
| G.H. Miller et al., 2012, “Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks.” Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L02708, doi:10.1029/2011GL050168. |
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| The global cooling impact of climate-forcing volcanism |
| Bethan Harris, “The potential impact of super-volcanic eruptions on the Earth’s atmosphere.” Weather – August 2008, Volume 63, No. 8. DOI: 10.1002/wea.263. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wea.263. |
| Didier Swingedouw et al., 2015, “Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions.” Nature Communications. 6:6545 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7545. |
| D. Zanchettin et al., 2013, “Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions.” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmos., 118, 4090–4106, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50229. |
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| M. Sigl et al., 2015, “Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.” Nature, 523(7562), 543–549. DOI:10.1038/nature14565. |
| C. Gao et al., 2008, “Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core‐based index for climate models.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D23111, doi: 10.1029/2008JD010239. |
| E. Martin et al., 2014, “Volcanic sulfate aerosol formation in the troposphere.” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmos., 119, 12,660–12,673, doi:10.1002/2014JD021915. |
| J.P. Vernier et al., 2011, “Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade.” Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L12807, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047563. |
| Alan Robock, “Volcanic Eruptions and Climate.” Reviews of Geophysics, 38, 2 / May 2000. 191–219. |
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The non-cooling climate impact of climate-forcing volcanism (severe drought and rainfall)
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| K.J. Anchukaitis et al., 2010, “The influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region.” Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22703, doi:10.1029/2010GL044843. |
| Feng Shi et al., “A tree-ring reconstruction of the South Asian summer monsoon index over the past millennium.” Scientific Reports Volume 4, Article number: 6739 (2014). DOI: 10.1038/srep06739. |
| Z. Zhuo et al., 2014, “Proxy evidence for China’s monsoon precipitation response to volcanic aerosols over the past seven centuries.” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmos., 119, 6638–6652, doi:10.1002/2013JD021061. |
| Chaochao Gao, “Volcanic monsoon influence revealed from multi-proxy evidence.” PAGES Magazine. Science Highlights. Volcanoes and Climate. Volume 23, No 2, December 2015. |
| C. Shen et al., “Exceptional drought events over eastern China during the last five centuries.” Climatic Change (2007) 85: 453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9283-y. |
| Jim M. Haywood et al., “Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall.” Nature Climate Change Volume 3, 660–665 (2013). |
| L. Oman et al., 2006, “High-latitude eruptions cast shadow over the African monsoon and the flow of the Nile.” Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L18711, doi:10.1029/2006GL027665. |
| K.E. Trenberth and A. Dai, 2007, “Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering.” Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L15702, doi:10.1029/2007GL030524. |
| Drew T. Shindell et al., “Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600.” Journal of Geophysical Research. Volume 109, D05104, doi:10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004. |
| E.M. Fischer et al., 2007, “European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium.” Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L05707, doi:10.1029/2006GL027992. |
| Ben B. B. Booth et al., “Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.” Nature Volume 484, 228–232 (2012). DOI:10.1038/nature10946. |
| J. Mignot et al, “Volcanic impact on the Atlantic Ocean over the last millennium.” Climate of the Past, 7, 1439-1455, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1439-2011, 2011. |
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| Volcanic activity has been more frequent over the last 1-2 millennia |
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| C. Oppenheimer, 2003, “Ice core and paleoclimate evidence for the timing and nature of the great mid‐13th century volcanic eruption.” International Journal of Climatology, 23: 417-426. doi:10.1002/joc.891. [See Figure 1, 418, depicting the volcanic sulpha |
| O.N. Solomina et al., 2016, “Glacier fluctuations during the past 2000 years.” Quaternary Science Reviews, 149, 61-90. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.04.008 |
| G.H. Miller et al., “Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic.” Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 29, Issues 15–16, 2010. 1679-1715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.001. |
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Solar activity impact on the climate system
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Rapid climate change events after the Holocene Climate Optimum terminated ancient civilizations (but were dismissed or omitted by the IPCC in its key climate risk assessments)
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