Environmentally induced pandemic influenza risk factors

PREPRINT: Carlton B. Brown (2021), Influenza pandemic risk factors associated with solar cycle extremes, low solar and geomagnetic activity, cold-glacial climate change, and geographic origination (1500-2018).

Author: Carlton B. Brown (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4871-7521, https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlton-brown-13b66232/).

Download: Research Article (Pandemic_Influenza_Risk_Factors), Supplementary Materials (Supplementary_Materials_Pandemic_Influenza_Risk_Factors)

Abstract: There is no means of predicting when influenza pandemics could occur because risk factors are poorly understood. Risk factor assessment utilized numerous statistical methods, 10 multi-century solar activity, climate change datasets, and expert-confirmed influenza outbreaks. The mid-study coldest temperature was compared with glacial cycle peak temperatures (n=16 ice cores). There was a grand mean of 0.92 pandemics per 11-year sunspot number cycle (SE=0.15, n=25, 1700-) and a higher pandemic probability at cycle peaks and troughs +/-1-year (logistic regression, Peaks: P=0.01, OR=4.2. Troughs: P=0.03, OR=3.4). Multiple logistic regression confirmed peak+trough+/-1-year stages and positive cosmic ray intensity anomalies relative to its 1961-1990 mean as pandemic and epidemic predictors-triggers, respectively (Pr>|z|<0.05, 1700-). Simple logistic1 and linear2 regression identified colder Greenland and Northern Hemisphere temperatures, increased cosmic ray intensity, Arctic sea ice cover, and Greenland ice accumulation rate relative to their 1961-1990 means as outbreak1 and annual outbreak rate2 predictors (P<0.05, 1-11yr moving average1 and cycle mean2 anomalies, 1500-1, 1700-1,2). Greenland was at its coldest mid-study, 8 kiloyears after the glacial cycle peak temperature (mean -4.8°C, n=10 ice cores), or -21% of its prior Holocene interglacial increase. Four categories of risk factors were identified, including solar cycle extremes, low solar and geomagnetic activity, Arctic cold-glaciation linked to the glacial cycle stage, and geographic risk.

Keywords: influenza pandemic; zoonosis; risk factor; circadian system; cold stress; immunosuppression; low solar activity; geomagnetism; cosmic rays; cold climate change.

Preprint: this research article was peer-reviewed by a global public health journal and is “held up” with professional editors before resubmission.

Note: 2019 was perfect timing for a pandemic, if only you knew. There were predictable times and locations more frequently associated with influenza pandemics, which appear relevant to COVID-19. Since 1700 a statistically significant 76% of influenza pandemics and major regional epidemics occurred within a year of the peak or trough of the 11-year sunspot number cycle, including all 20th and 21st-century pandemics and the first avian H5N1 (1997) and H7N9 (2013) zoonoses. Human-to-human COVID-19 transmission was confirmed in 2019 during the 11-year sunspot number minimum and, more generally, during this current grand solar minimum period. An earlier version of these results was provided by email to WHO (Switzerland, 2018) and WHO center contacts in the UK, USA, and China (2018) in my attempt to raise a pandemic alarm. However, no reply was forthcoming on numerous occasions.

Risk factors thematically-putatively associated with immunological susceptibility and regional-scale induced immunosuppression were identified linked to solar-/geo-magnetic cycles, natural climate change, and geographical risks (i.e., China, Europe, North America). Zoonoses and regional-scale viral transmission putatively implicated the circadian system-, cosmic ray-induced ionization-, and cold stress-induced- immunosuppression, and climate-weather-optimized infectious aerosols. The circadian system (CS) controls the immuno-inflammatory systems, and respiratory viruses jack their replication cycles into the CS. Circadian system core clock cryptochrome repressors are magnetoreceptive, giving solar magnetic polarity changes and flux a putative bio-lever on viral disease. Geographical risk putatively implicated single nucleotide polymorphisms (i.e., genetic immune susceptibility) in patient-zero and associated family clusters (i.e., Han Chinese, Caucasian). China’s COVID-19 patient-zero location (i.e., tropical warm-humid) going into the Northern Hemisphere winter (i.e., high latitude regional-scale immunosuppression) putatively facilitated human susceptibility and aerosol transmission of the virus.


Negative vaccine effectiveness and vaccine failure associated with COVID-19 vaccination

Title: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with higher rates of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death. Carlton B. Brown, 2022.

Keywords: Antibody-dependent enhancement of viral infection (ADE), vaccine-associated enhanced disease (VAED), negative vaccine effectiveness, antigenic-imprinting, vaccine failure.

Summary: At the national level, during the Omicron wave, COVID-19 vaccination did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. On the contrary, in general, the COVID-19 infection rates were significantly higher in the 1-, 2-, and 3-dose COVID-19 vaccinated than in the unvaccinated (New Zealand, England, Scotland, and Canada). There was a significant COVID-19 death and hospitalization prevention disbenefit or no benefit at all to COVID-19 vaccination across the various dose and demographic categories. Government claims (in general) that COVID-19 vaccination prevented COVID-19 death and hospitalization despite enhanced infection rates are unsupported by the majority of its data, especially in the elderly, who accounted for most of the COVID-19 death and hospitalization burden. At the global scale, high rates of COVID-19 vaccination were associated with significantly higher infection and death rates than low vaccination rates (77 nations). This study’s results and annotated graphic summaries can be downloaded (ADE_VAED_Vaccine-failure).

Evidentiary Document: This study supported an evidentiary document and Open Letter sent to New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Minister of Health, other Ministers, and many senior healthcare-related executives, specialists, and researchers. This evidentiary document provided the results of my private research into (1) negative COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and vaccine failure in New Zealand, England, Scotland, and Canada across the Omicron wave and Globally (2021), (2) the evidence for toxic vaccine lots in the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System database and its global implications, and (3) the significant evidence for SARS-CoV-2’s gain-of-function origin and the mechanisms used to enhance infectivity and pathogenicity (https://grandsolarminimum.com/2022/12/01/covid-19-vaccine-harm-evidence/).

Toxic COVID-19 Vaccine Lots (VAERS)

Title: Evidence for toxic COVID-19 vaccine lots identified in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS, USA). Carlton B. Brown, 2022.

Evidentiary Document: This VAERS study supported an evidentiary document, and Open Letter sent to New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Minister of Health, other Ministers, and many senior healthcare-related executives, specialists, and researchers. This evidentiary document provided the results of my private research into (1) negative COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and vaccine failure in New Zealand, England, Scotland, and Canada across the Omicron wave and Globally (2021), (2) the evidence for toxic vaccine lots in the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System database and its global implications, and (3) the significant evidence for SARS-CoV-2’s gain-of-function origin and the mechanisms used to enhance infectivity and pathogenicity (https://grandsolarminimum.com/2022/12/01/covid-19-vaccine-harm-evidence/).

Download a PDF copy of this US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) study that investigated the evidence for toxic COVID-19 vaccine lots (Toxic COVID-19 vaccine Lots (VEARS, USA)) and the associated .zip file containing the VAERS data text files (VAERS_COVID-19-Vaccine_Death-Hospitalization_data_07122021_Archive).


According to this analysis of the US Government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System data (VAERS), one year of COVID-19 vaccine-associated deaths and hospitalizations (“adverse outcomes” by 07/12/2021) were equivalent in number to all other vaccine adverse outcomes in the USA over the last 32 and 20 years respectively. A small minority of vaccine lots was associated with the majority of these COVID-19 vaccine-related adverse outcomes. Furthermore, there was an uneven distribution of negative outcomes across vaccine lots (i.e., skewed and peaked). Most of these adverse outcomes were associated with a minority of lots sent to a larger number of states. This minority of lots had a significantly higher weighted mean and median of adverse outcomes per state per lot fraction sent to a State when lots were shipped to ≥11 states (deaths) and ≥19 States (hospitalizations) compared with those sent to state totals below these thresholds. These issues were replicated with all US COVID-19 vaccines. These results would imply the presence of significant differences in vaccine lot composition or specification, or there was targeted vaccine use in high-risk demographics (i.e., the elderly) coordinated via a central vaccine distribution mechanism. Ninety percent of all vaccine-related adverse outcomes were associated with mRNA gene-therapy-vaccines.

Open Letter & Evidentiary Document sent to the New Zealand Prime Minister and Ministers

Download a copy of the: (1) Evidentiary Document referred to in this Open Letter (PDF: EvidentiaryDocument_COVID19NationalLevelHarm_01122022, MS Word (clickable citations): EvidentiaryDocument_COVID19NationalLevelHarm_01122022), (2) Slide Deck of Evidentiary Document including annotated graphics EvidentiaryDocument_COVID19NationalLevelHarm_Slidedeck_01012023, and (3) associated study results and graphics (ADE_VAED_Vaccine-failure), (Toxic COVID-19 vaccine Lots (VEARS, USA))

Open Letter & Evidentiary Document for the Prime Minister and all Ministers: COVID-19 negative vaccine effectiveness and harm evidence in New Zealand and overseas (Results, Call to Action)
To: “j.ardern@ministers.govt.nz” <j.ardern@ministers.govt.nz>, “a.little@ministers.govt.nz” <a.little@ministers.govt.nz>, “p.henare@ministers.govt.nz” <p.henare@ministers.govt.nz>, “a.verrall@ministers.govt.nz” <a.verrall@ministers.govt.nz>, “a.sio@ministers.govt.nz” <a.sio@ministers.govt.nz>
Cc: “c.sepuloni@ministers.govt.nz” <c.sepuloni@ministers.govt.nz>, “c.hipkins@ministers.govt.nz” <c.hipkins@ministers.govt.nz>, “d.oconnor@ministers.govt.nz” <d.oconnor@ministers.govt.nz>, “d.parker@ministers.govt.nz” <d.parker@ministers.govt.nz>, “d.clark@ministers.govt.nz” <d.clark@ministers.govt.nz>, “m.woods@ministers.govt.nz” <m.woods@ministers.govt.nz>, “g.robertson@ministers.govt.nz” <g.robertson@ministers.govt.nz>, “j.shaw@ministers.govt.nz” <j.shaw@ministers.govt.nz>, “j.tinetti@ministers.govt.nz” <j.tinetti@ministers.govt.nz>, “k.davis@ministers.govt.nz” <k.davis@ministers.govt.nz>, “k.mcanulty@ministers.govt.nz” <k.mcanulty@ministers.govt.nz>, “k.allan@ministers.govt.nz” <k.allan@ministers.govt.nz>, “m.davidson@ministers.govt.nz” <m.davidson@ministers.govt.nz>, “m.whaitiri@ministers.govt.nz” <m.whaitiri@ministers.govt.nz>, “m.wood@ministers.govt.nz” <m.wood@ministers.govt.nz>, “n.mahuta@ministers.govt.nz” <n.mahuta@ministers.govt.nz>, “p.twyford@ministers.govt.nz” <p.twyford@ministers.govt.nz>, “p.williams@ministers.govt.nz” <p.williams@ministers.govt.nz>, “p.radhakrishnan@ministers.govt.nz” <p.radhakrishnan@ministers.govt.nz>, “s.nash@ministers.govt.nz” <s.nash@ministers.govt.nz>, “w.jackson@ministers.govt.nz” <w.jackson@ministers.govt.nz>, “cabinetoffice@dpmc.govt.nz” <cabinetoffice@dpmc.govt.nz>, “covid19vaccinesafetynz@protonmail.com” <covid19vaccinesafetynz@protonmail.com>

Dear Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister, Hon Andrew Little, Minister of Health, Hon Dr. Ayesha Verrall, Minister of COVID-19 Response, and Hon Peeni Henare and Hon Aupito William Sio, Associate Ministers of Health

In this Open Letter and evidentiary document, I share my research results on overseas government and Ministry of Health (MoH) COVID-19 vaccine surveillance and pharmacovigilance data indicating irreparable vaccine-induced harm. Furthermore, I share important evidence that SARS-CoV-2 originated from gain-of-function research, remind you that no evidence exists for an animal-to-human origin, and highlight that its potential source lay beyond Wuhan, China. A series of requests for investigations are made below linked to this evidence, including the statistical biases evident in the Ministry of Health and other healthcare agencies’ calculable unvaccinated COVID-19 case rates. These biases essentially eliminated the negative vaccine effectiveness harm signal from ready public view. This evidentiary document is provided by a former European corporate venture capital-funded CEO/vaccine innovator (“Vaccines for Mutating Viruses”), veterinarian with 36 years of vaccine use experience, and a private researcher. It is supported by 525 unique data, scientific, and other citations.

According to New Zealand, England, Scotland, and Canada healthcare agencies and Global surveillance data (77 nations), these vaccines failed to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection as initially touted. Significant negative vaccine effectiveness and vaccine failure were evident with the emergence of antigenically distinct strains (i.e., Delta, Omicron). The vaccine industry experienced antibody-dependent enhancement of virus infection (ADE) and vaccine-associated enhanced disease (VAED) with three other different coronaviruses and their spike protein vaccine prototypes in the last 30 years, giving my study results a predictable context. Furthermore, one year of US lot-numbered COVID-19 vaccine-associated deaths and hospitalizations equaled 32x (Comirnaty 15.4x) and 20x (Comirnaty 10.5x) of all US vaccine-associated deaths and hospitalizations, respectively. These adverse outcomes were highly skewed and peaked across vaccine lots and were associated with a minority of lots sent to a larger number of US States. This data highlights that there was an urgent need for investigation by the US and other regulatory and healthcare agencies before expanded population use.

A vast chasm exists between the vaccine safety and efficacy experienced in 2021-2022 and the falsifiable 95% vaccine efficacy and safety proclaimed by governments with Comirnaty’s first Emergency Use Authorization in 2020 (USA). This document reviews critical pharmacotoxicology and clinical safety package deficiencies evident in overseas regulatory reviews. This helps explain why Pfizer then struggled to cope with the sheer volume of Comirnaty adverse event reports in the first 90 days post-launch. This was uncharacteristic of a safe vaccine. Numerous vaccine-associated enhanced disease mechanisms are evident by which vaccine spike proteins can cause disease or exacerbate comorbidities common to severe COVID-19 outcomes. These mechanisms place upregulated furin and angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 receptors (ACE2) and prevalent comorbidities in tissues and organs common to all three center-stage. At the same time, SARS-CoV-2’s spike protein provides its uniquely encoded furin cleavage site for the furin to cleave its S1 and S2 sub-units and activate its ACE2-receptor-mediated infectivity and pathogenicity.

Of grave concern for global public health is a gain-of-function origin to SARS-CoV-2 is indicated by its spike protein incorporating human infectivity and pathogenicity enhancing features unprecedented in nature while synthetic biology left its fingerprints. Furthermore, there is no evidence supporting a Wuhan Huanan market zoonosis because no virus progenitor or animal host was ever identified. There are two reasons for detailing a coronavirus gain-of-function origin to SARS-CoV-2. Firstly, the negative vaccine effectiveness evident in governments’ COVID-19 surveillance data could have been enhanced by a genetically modified SARS-CoV-2. Secondly, the world will be left vulnerable to future pandemics if there was no accidental release from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. At least two other potential SARS-CoV-2 origins exist beyond Wuhan, with one of these potentially involving a WHO, Five Eyes, and NATO-spearhead member nation connected with Ukraine.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) and National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding of EcoHealth Alliance (EHA, $69 million) and its connections one-degree-removed were scrutinized because EHA’s leader led a failed attempt to cover up SARS-CoV-2’s gain-of-function origin. EHA directed research that genetically modified bat SARSr-CoVs that could not infect humans so that they could. EHA’s $14.2 million funding application to the DoD in 2018 showed its intent to insert a codon-optimized furin cleavage site (FCS) into bat SARSr-CoVs. A uniquely encoded Arginine-doublet containing FCS now sits between SARS-CoV-2’s spike protein S1 and S2 sub-units, which has no precedent in known viruses and may have infringed patents. Besides EHA’s long-standing collaborations with two coronavirus gain-of-function research epicenters in the USA and China, it had another with Metabiota. Metabiota’s Series-A lead investor was a Hunter Biden part-owned investment firm. The DoD-funded Metabiota operated in Pentagon Biolabs in Ukraine and US-funded Biolabs in Cameroon and researched corona-, monkeypox-, influenza-, and Ebola viruses. Metabiota has implemented major DoD and Homeland Security contracts across Central Africa while its surveillance role in Sierra Leone’s Ebola outbreak in 2014 created significant controversies.

You are requested to investigate: (1) this New Zealand and overseas evidence for negative vaccine effectiveness, vaccine failure, and toxic vaccine lots, (2) the statistical biases evident in the MoH and other healthcare agencies’ calculable unvaccinated COVID-19 case rates, which essentially eliminated the negative vaccine effectiveness signal, (3) the role of COVID-19 vaccination in exacerbating comorbidities most frequently associated with serious-severe COVID-19 outcomes, (4) SARS-CoV-2’s gain-of-function origin while internationally championing a punitive global ban on gain-of-function R&D, and (5) the conduct of the WHO during COVID-19 linked to seven critical points detailed in section 2.7. Would you please ensure New Zealanders are updated on their recently acquired life-long health risks and that informed consent guidelines associated with COVID-19 vaccination be urgently amended? Would government please prioritize clinical research into COVID-19 antibody-dependent enhancement of virus infection, vaccine-associated enhanced disease, and antigenic imprinting in the New Zealand population? Thank you.

Yours sincerely

Dr. Carlton Brown BVSc (1986, Massey University), MBA (1997, London Business School).
Former CEO and co-innovator at Immune Targeting Systems Ltd (UK), “Vaccines for Mutating Viruses.”
Raising awareness for antibody-dependent enhancement of virus infection (ADE), vaccine-associated enhanced disease (VAED), and antigenic imprinting.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlton-brown-13b66232/, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4871-7521, https://substack.com/profile/113761363-carlton-b-brown, https://twitter.com/ADE_Bioweapon.
Download the Evidentiary Document: https://grandsolarminimum.com/2022/12/01/covid-19-vaccine-harm-evidence/.


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