by Carlton Brown | Sep 22, 2020 |
It is impossible to know what happened to the global surface temperature between 1850/1880 and 2020 utilizing the global surface temperature indices provided by NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA), and the MetOffice, without access to the raw data. This situation arises because all current temperature indices have been majorly altered over earlier versions, which is evidenced by subtracting the old from the new versions. These index version changes had the effect of increasing the warming rate and absolute temperature increase from 1900 to 2020 while giving the impression that 2020 was broadly on par with or exceeded an artificially diminished 2016 peak temperature.
Data Sources: see the data hyperlinks in the table below. This data was provided and altered by NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the UK MetOffice.
Figure legend: Version differences for MetOffice NASA, and NOAA global mean surface temperature indices (current versus predecessors). Subtracting the older index version from the current version revealed the differences. Annual global temperature anomaly differences were averaged by period groupings into start-to-end, pre-1975 and post-1975, and the last 5-years. The period grouping percentage differences were calculated (%={new version minus old version} /divided by old version). A positive percentage before 1975 meant an increased cooling, while a positive percentage after 1975 meant increased warming. A negative percentage before 1975 meant a reduced cooling, while a negative percentage after 1975 meant reduced warming.
When HadCRUT current V5.0.1 (YE2020) version was compared with its predecessor V4.6 (YE2020), V4.0 (YE2010), and V3 (YE2013) versions; the post-1975 average temperature anomaly (rel. 1961-1990) was increased by 22%-43%, and the last 5-years of direct comparison were increased by 22%-42% (made warmer) over the earlier versions. The pre-1975 average temperature anomaly was reduced by 16-17% (made colder) for V5.0.1 over the V4.6 and V4.0 versions. The largest warming increases were observed between V5.0.1 over V3 for the post-1975 period (43%) and the last 5-years of comparison (42%, 2009-2013). These post-1975 changes had the effect of making 2020 broadly on par with the prior 2016 peak global temperature.
NASA’s current V4 version (YE2020) average temperature anomaly (1880-to-end, rel.1951-1980) increased by 99% over V2 (YE2000, made colder), 78% over V3 (YE2018, made warmer), and by 26% over V1 (YE1996, made colder). The largest version differences were observed between V4 (YE2020) over V2 (YE2000) across all comparator periods (16%-99%). The average 1880-to-end difference increased by 99% (made colder), the pre-1975 was reduced by 47% (made colder), while the last 5-years of direct comparison saw the V4 warming increase by 32% (1996-2000). NASA’s V4 (YE2020) adjustments over its V4 (YE2019) version also reduced the 2016 peak temperature anomaly from 1.33°C to 1.31°C, reduced the 2019 temperature anomaly from 1.28°C to 1.25°C, thus making 2020 the hottest year (1.33°C), which usurped an artificially diminished 2016 peak temperature in the hottest temperature rankings.
NOAA’s current V5 version (YE2020) average anomaly (1880-to-end, rel.1971-2000) increased by 36-49% over the V4 (YE2019), V3.5.1 (YE2012), and V3b (YE2011) versions (made colder in all cases) with most of the change occurring pre-1975 (26-37%). NOAA’s V5 (YE2020) adjustments also increased the temperature anomaly in 2019 by 0.03°C (5%) over V4 (YE2019), while reducing the 2016 peak temperature 0.02°C. These changes made 2020 broadly on par with a diminished 2016 global peak temperature in the hottest temperature rankings.
by Carlton Brown | Nov 12, 2019 |
MS Word version (navigable citation links): Scientific-Refutation-of-the-IPCCs-Key-Risk-Assessment_NZ_Final
PDF Slide deck summary: Scientific Refutation of the IPCC-AR5 Key Risk Assessment
Email recipients: See all To and Copied recipients below (not the BCC-ed).
Subject: Request for Investigation: the UN/IPCC’s corruption of climate science results in Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern lying to the public
Dear Prime Minister, Ministers and Associate Ministers of Education, Justice and Broadcasting/Communications/Media, the Attorney General, and Universities New Zealand Vice-Chancellors
Would you please investigate the corruption of normal-science in the climate science field (“corruption”) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”), and its impact on New Zealand academia and student miseducation, on government policies and media, and on future human safety? With Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern blatantly lying in contradiction to the 2019 climate data (“lie”), “We’re here because our world is warming. Undeniably it is warming,” it is clear this corruption has undermined government objectivity. Between early 2016 and mid-2019 global temperatures declined 0.47°C, telling us the world is “undeniably cooling.”
The only climate change key-risk assessment that matters to this government is what the IPCC contrived under a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article-2 diktat in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, see Minister Shaw’s letter) linked only to theoretical anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This UN-diktat resulted in the erroneous dismissal of catastrophic natural climate change risks most relevant to the 21st century, just to eliminate any cooling contestation to the IPCC’s policy-directing Representative Concentration Pathway global warming scenarios. The Ministry for the Environment’s National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA, NCCRAF master templates) was also constrained by this UNFCCC Article-2 dictated risk-framework and predetermined the theoretical anthropogenic global warming risks upfront, before dressing it up with a Maori name (“Arotakenga Huringa Āhuarangi”) and then giving it to the assessment team.
The expert credentials of anyone promoting the IPCC’s Article 1 and 2 dictated sham-science and key-risk assessment are called into question if they failed to critically review all 4,931 pages of AR5 against the unfiltered climate data and science detailing our catastrophic natural climate change history back to the Holocene Climate Optimum, and thus failed to;
- Realize the major fabrication of global warming by UK and US government agencies (MetOffice, NOAA, NASA), evidenced by subtracting the post-1990 global climate index versions from the current versions. These fabricated global climate indices are those used by the IPCC and New Zealand’s government (MFE) to manipulate public opinion and justify policy.
- Realize that global atmospheric temperatures declined 0.47°C between early 2016 and mid-2019, while carbon dioxide (CO2) increased 2.8%. In AR5 the IPCC projected a 2016-2035 global mean surface temperature (GMST) increase of 0.3°C-0.7°C, meaning its policy-directing forecast is in error.
- Refute the IPCC’s radiative forcing theory based on its three-decade legacy for generating highly inaccurate climate forecasts (AR5): 1986-1998; 84% under-forecasted the GMST. 1998-2012; 97% over-forecasted GMST, while 100% failed to predict the 15-year climate hiatus (no GMST increase) during this same period when CO2 increased by 8.0%. Points 2 and 3 clearly show the IPCC theory is unable to predict the GMST and its natural oscillations.
- Realize the modern era’s natural warming phase actually started in the depths of the Little Ice Age (early 1700s) and long before significant human greenhouse gas emissions. This fact of data is veiled from public view by the IPCC’s reliance on fabricated global climate indices that started between 1850 and 1880CE i.e., UNFCCC Article 1 defined climate change and AGW hijacked/rebranded natural climate change.
- Reflect that a major glaciation started after the Holocene Climate Optimum, which tracked a 40-50Watt/m2 decline in solar irradiance over eight millennia (i.e., 15 times today’s putative human radiative forcing impact) and a near 5°C decline in Arctic/Antarctic ice core temperatures by 1700CE (20%/36% of their Holocene interglacial rise, in absolute terms). This glaciation peaked during the Little Ice Age, and its melt initiation preceded significant human activity. Despite five-millennia of glaciation up to the mid-19th century, the IPCC erroneously dismissed with virtual certainty the prospect of glaciation for the next 1,000 years.
- Refute the IPCC’s non-peer reviewed mini-theory that delayed the next ice age by an unprecedented 30,000-50,000 years, and to falsify its incorrect assumption that the last ice age ended ‘about 10,000 years ago.’ Minister James Shaw as minister of statistics ignored a major statistical oversight that would normally falsify this ice age delay theory on three counts, never mind its conflict with existing climate data.
- Critically question the IPCC’s key-risk assumption that climate change risk lessons from the Little Ice Age and rapid climate change events since just before the Holocene Climate Optimum, associated with famine, war, and epidemic related catastrophes, civilization destructions, and species extinctions, were not applicable today.
- Realize that the IPCC erroneously dismissed or omitted catastrophic natural climate change risks most relevant to the 21st century, and which have been in plentiful evidence over the last eight millennia, i.e., global cooling cycles, glaciation, climate-forcing volcanism, grand solar minimum related extremes of precipitation (±), rapid climate change, and pandemic influenza.
- Reflect the alternative 21st-century climate forecasts from leading solar activity scientists expert in climate change, who warn of a return to a Little Ice Age-like climate during this current grand solar minimum period. Is this why cold, snow and precipitation records are being shattered all around the world in 2019?
- Realize that a detailed correlation analysis between CO2 and the GMST does not support their cause and effect relationship. This explains the IPCC’s high forecast inaccuracy and why a correlation analysis was not provided in any IPCC Working Group 1 report since 1990.
- Realize governments and corporates only have fifty years of ‘proven’ oil and gas reserves on their balance sheets, which is insufficient to generate the full 21st-century global warming that we are fear-mongered with, let alone delay an ice age. With reserves-to-production for oil and gas being less than 100% for most of the last 40 years, peak discovery is history. As such, all IPCC climate forecasts are technically invalidated.
On the basis of points 1-11 the IPCC’s radiative forcing (RF) theory, forecasts, and key-risk assessment would normally be refuted and replaced had the climate science field not been corrupted by UNFCCC Articles 1 and 2, IPCC processes and procedures, government-directed academic funding, and other factors.
In the event of an unmitigated 21st-century natural climate change catastrophe, blindly-following UN member state governments, the international scientific community, and the world’s media could be considered complicit in a UN/IPCC-led strategic genocide (“genocide”), consequent to this corruption. By implementing dubious UN global strategies into national policy and strategies this government places our nation and economy at risk (i.e., (1) IPCC/NCCRA; unmitigated catastrophic natural climate change risks. (2) WHO/MOH; enforcing our vulnerability to pandemic influenza during this high-risk grand solar minimum period by following an obsolete global vaccine strategy), while undermining our nation’s self-determinism and sovereignty.
Because the 1988 UNFCCC Article 1 and 2 dictated sham-science paradigm dominates New Zealand academia and tertiary miseducation the request to investigate this corruption is relevant to the minister of education and to the university vice chancellors. The high-possibility for 21st-century genocide resulting from United Nations global strategies benefiting from this corruption and being implemented by this government make this request a legal and human rights issue relevant to the minister of justice and the attorney general. The fact New Zealand’s media have failed to investigate this corruption, which sees our Prime Minister and minister of climate change publicly lie in contradiction to the climate data, makes this request relevant to the minister of broadcasting, communications and digital media – and the Prime Minister herself.
The following attached documents will show you exactly where to look in AR5’s 4,931 pages to see the IPCC’s incriminating disclosures and will help you understand the natural climate change risks, data, and science that was filtered out by the IPCC’s corruptive process.
- Scientific Refutation (MS Word): https://grandsolarminimum.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Scientific-Refutation-of-the-IPCCs-Key-Risk-Assessment_NZ_Final.docx
- Slide deck (PDF): https://grandsolarminimum.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Scientific-Refutation-of-the-IPCC-AR5-Key-Risk-Assessment.pdf
See my credentials below my signature.
Thank you.
Dr. Carlton Brown BVSc (Massey University) MBA (London Business School)
Advocate for Natural Climate Change Risk-Mitigation: Switching to Renewable Energy, and Implementing Centralized/Decentralized Sustainable Development and Prepandemic Influenza Immunization (Urgently)
FreeBook “Revolution: Ice age Re-entry”: Regular Amazon #1 (https://amzn.to/2PyQsxV), Google Play (http://bit.ly/2JFHz08), Kobo (http://bit.ly/2F3DdRQ), and Researchgate (http://bit.ly/2UnTBju)
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlton-brown-13b66232/
Website: https://grandsolarminimum.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Iceagereentry
Copyright © 2014 Carlton B. Brown of https://grandsolarminimum.com. All Rights are Reserved. You are free to forward this information on to third parties and use this information under CC-BY-SA 4.0 rules.
My research credentials and link to pandemic influenza, climate change, and earth system risks: See my LinkedIn profile.
I am a New Zealand graduated veterinarian (Massey University, 1987), with an MBA (London Business School, 1997) and commercial background in human life sciences (UK; Pharma, Biotech, Investment Banking). As co-founding CEO/co-lead scientist of Immune Targeting Systems Ltd, I spent a decade directing the innovation and development of a universal pandemic influenza vaccine able to immunologically target all potential pandemic influenza-A strains in a genetically diverse human population. The company also assessed the broadly cross-reactive antibody responses (able to target emerging viral mutants) of all regulatory approved vaccine adjuvants in combination with influenza hemagglutinin antigens (i.e., seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine antigens). As CEO I raised NZ$47million from European life-science investors and directed the vaccine technology innovation and development from inception to human proof-of-concept clinical studies, including breaking a global monopoly on the conduct of human influenza challenge studies. The company was sold in 2015.
That vaccine innovation project catalyzed my interest in influenza viral mutation epidemiology, and the role of Arctic migrating birds carrying pre-pandemic influenza-A viruses into cyclical extremes of electromagnetism, geomagnetism, and natural climate change during their summer migration. This resulted in the discovery that pandemic influenza outbreaks since 1500CE (the Little Ice Age) biased 11-year solar minimum/maximum periods, and grand solar minimum periods linked to Arctic cooling and glaciation. This discovery was facilitated by analyzing more than 100 data sets and many permutations of correlations between solar electromagnetism and magnetism, geomagnetism, climate change, glaciation, volcanism, and influenza pandemics, which made the lie about anthropogenic global warming and the error of our glacial cycle stage blatantly obvious.
Email recipients:
To: c.hipkins@ministers.govt.nz, j.salesa@ministers.govt.nz, k.davis@ministers.govt.nz, t.martin@ministers.govt.nz, david.parker@parliament.govt.nz, a.little@ministers.govt.nz, jan.logie@parliament.govt.nz, a.sio@ministers.govt.nz, kris.faafoi@parliament.govt.nz, s.mccutcheon@auckland.ac.nz, neilq@waikato.ac.nz, J.B.Thomas@massey.ac.nz, hayne@psy.otago.ac.nz, vice-chancellor@otago.ac.nz, vice-chancellor@vuw.ac.nz, cheryl.delarey@canterbury.ac.nz, Bruce.McKenzie@lincoln.ac.nz, VCOffice@lincoln.ac.nz, derek.mccormack@aut.ac.nz, jacinda.ardern@parliament.govt.nz,
CC-ed: winston.peters@parliament.govt.nz, james.shaw@parliament.govt.nz, eugenie.sage@parliament.govt.nz, nanaia.mahuta@parliament.govt.nz, Megan.Woods@parliament.govt.nz, Damien.O’Connor@parliament.govt.nz, phil.twyford@parliament.govt.nz, shane.jones@parliament.govt.nz, julieanne.genter@parliament.govt.nz, willow-jean.prime@parliament.govt.nz, david.clark@parliament.govt.nz, peeni.henare@parliament.govt.nz, ron.mark@parliament.govt.nz, Stuart.nash@parliament.govt.nz
by Carlton Brown | Oct 1, 2019 |
Dear Prime Minister and Cabinet Office
You are requested to investigate the systematic corruption of normal-science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and its impact on UK Academia (climate science and dependent disciplines) and the advise the IPCC provides to the UK government. The IPCC’s climate- and risk-science are promoted as representing a consensus of the international scientific community, which UK Crown and Academic scientists and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre has contributed to. This same request was sent to hundreds of science leaders at the UK Science and Social Science Academies, and UK Universities.
This UNFCCC Article 1 and 2-led corruption resulted in the dismissal or omission of catastrophic natural climate change risks relevant to the 21st century (Fifth Assessment Report, AR5). This corruption also eliminated our correct glacial cycle bearing on today’s climate, and permitted society’s manipulation with biased weather reports that hide the natural climate change truth. In the event of a natural climate change catastrophe, this corruption could constitute an act of genocide.
Please find attached a fully cited scientific refutation of the IPCC’s key-risk assessment (see below). For clarity, UNFCCC Article 1’s definition of climate change is fundamentally different to natural climate change, as are the key-risks.
The following summarizes the IPCC’s incriminating disclosures that undermine the validity of its AR5 climate change key-risk assessment. The IPCC;
- Projected a 2016-2035 global temperature increase of 0.3°C-0.7°C. Between early 2016 and mid-2019 the global temperature declined 0.47°C while CO2 increased 2.8% (average of 4 global climate indices).
- Disclosed its highly inaccurate climate forecasts: 1986-1998; 84% under-forecasted the global mean surface temperature (GMST). 1998-2012; 97% over-forecasted GMST while 100% failed to predict the 15-year climate hiatus during this period, when CO2 increased 8.0%. Carbon dioxide’s rise is known by science to have lagged behind the temperature rise by 9-12 months during this same three decade period.
- Failed to inform governments that this warming phase started in the early 1700s, long before significant human greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates something else ‘controlled’ this three century warming phase, and therefore a UNFCCC Article 2 diktat does not control the key-risks (see point 7).
- Disclosed its use of global climate indices, that have been sequentially altered by UK/US government agenciessince 1990. These index alterations accentuated the recent global warming, making government agencies the biggest contributor to ‘anthropogenic’ global warming (MetOffice, NOAA, NASA).
- Omitted to explain the significant glaciation that was initiatedat both Poles after the Holocene Climate Optimum, from about five millennia ago, which tracked a 40-50Watt/m^2 decline in solar irradiance (@65°N) and a 5°C decline in polar ice core temperatures by 1700CE (i.e., 20% of the Arctic’s absolute interglacial temperature rise). This glaciation peaked during the Little Ice Age, and its early-19th century melt initiation preceded significant human activity. Despite these (de)glaciation facts, the IPCC dismissed with virtual certainty the prospect of glaciation for the next 1,000 years.
- Erroneously delayed the next ice by an unprecedented 30,000-50,000 years, while stating the last ice age ended ‘about 10,000 years ago’ (both falsifiable). These critical risk-linked assumptions failed to reflect the existing climate data and were not subject to peer review scrutiny, and the ice age delay is statistically falsifiable on three counts.
- Only assessed key-risks relative to UNFCCC Article 2(i.e., theoretical anthropogenic global warming), while it biasedly dismissed or omitted catastrophic natural climate change risks most relevant to the 21st century i.e., global cooling, glaciation, climate-forcing volcanism, rapid climate change, and pandemic influenza.
- Erroneously dismissed key scientific lessons associated with the Little Ice Age and the rapid climate change eventssince just before the Holocene Climate Optimum (see point 7’s risks), linked to climate change, and its associated famine, war, and epidemic related catastrophes, civilization destructions and species extinctions.
- Omitted to disclose that leading solar activity scientists expert in climate change have warned of a return to a Little Ice Age-like climate during this current grand solar minimum period.
- Confirmed that we only have decades of ‘proven’ oil and gas reserves left. Fifty-plus years of proven oil and gas reservesare insufficient to generate the full 21st century global warming that we are fear-mongered with, let alone delay an ice age. With reserves-to-production for oil and gas being less than 100% for most of the last 40 years, peak discovery is history.
If normal science were operating in the climate science field, the IPCC’s radiative forcing theory, forecasts and its key-risk assessment would be falsified.
Earth’s ice age entry after the Holocene Climate Optimum millennia ago, our ‘probable’ 21st century ice age re-entry (P-value <0.05), and a host of catastrophic natural climate change related risks linked to grand solar minimum periods are clearly evident by analyzing the full repertoire of climate, solar activity, volcanic eruption, and pandemic influenza outbreak data (see attached).
While I am sure UK academia is loathe to speak up against this politicized corruption of ‘normal-science’ as it holds its hand out for funding, I am here to remind government and academia – before its too late – that in the event of a natural climate change catastrophe (pandemic influenza included), parts of academia could be complicit in crimes against humanity. This email was prompted by members of your Cabinet Office reviewing my LinkedIn profile last week after my request to New Zealand’s Royal Society Te Apārangi Council and University Leadership to investigate this Article 1 and 2-led corruption.
What are you going to do about re-asserting scientific integrity over this politicized corruption of normal science, and ensuring the future safety of UK citizens and the post-Brexit UK economy?
Please see below my signature for a summary of my career skills relevant to earth system risks.
Attachments: if not attached to this email please click the following links.
- Scientific Refutation: Scientific Refutation of the IPCC’s Article 1&2 dictated Key Risk Assessment_UK V2
- Slide deck: Scientific Refutation of the IPCC’s Article 1&2 dictated Key Risk Assessment
- Hyperlink to this email: Click here.
Thank you.
Yours sincerely
Dr. Carlton Brown BVSc (Massey University) MBA (London Business School)
Advocate for Natural Climate Change Risk-Mitigation: Switching to Renewable Energy, and Implementing Decentralized/Centralized Sustainable Development and Prepandemic Influenza Immunization (Urgently)
FreeBook “Revolution: Ice age Re-entry”: Amazon (https://amzn.to/2PyQsxV), Google Play (http://bit.ly/2JFHz08), Kobo (http://bit.ly/2F3DdRQ), and Researchgate (http://bit.ly/2UnTBju)
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlton-brown-13b66232/
Website: http://grandsolarminimum.com
Twitter (for an activist discussion): https://twitter.com/Iceagereentry
Copyright © 2014 Carlton B. Brown of http://grandsolarminimum.com. All Rights are Reserved. You are free to forward this information on to third parties and use this information under CC-BY-SA 4.0 rules.
My professional background and research link to earth system risks: See my LinkedIn profile.
I am a New Zealand qualified veterinarian (Massey University, 1986), with an MBA (London Business School, 1997) and a commercial background in human life sciences (Pharma, Biotech, Investment Banking, UK). I spent a decade innovating and developing a universal pandemic influenza vaccine able to immunologically target all potential pandemic influenza-A strains in humans. As founding-innovating CEO I raised £23million from corporate/blue-chip life-science investors for that UK venture before my company was sold in 2015.
That vaccine innovation project catalyzed my interest in influenza viral mutation epidemiology, and the role of Arctic migrating birds carrying pre-pandemic viruses into cyclical extremes of electromagnetism, geomagnetism, and natural climate change. This resulted in the discovery that pandemic influenza outbreaks since 1500CE (the Little Ice Age) biased 11-year solar minimum/maximum periods, and grand solar minimum periods linked to Arctic cooling and glaciation. This bio-system discovery was facilitated by analyzing the permutations of correlations between solar activity, geomagnetism, climate change, volcanism, and influenza pandemics, which made the lie about anthropogenic global warming obvious.
As a veterinarian, I have spent my career developing an expertise in using thermometers and recording temperatures, understanding the complexities of biological system control and regulation, and managing health and risks. These skills were directly applicable to understanding Earth as a complex cyclical system sustaining life. My science background and investment banking/analytical skills made it easy to comprehend this UNFCCC Article 1 and 2 enabled sham-science, and how climate science is in error as to our glacial cycle stage.
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